Analysis of nearly 100,000 tweets demonstrate that those following the tweets with hashtags related to the Georgia Senate Elections see a story that shows support for a Democratic win
One of the most watched elections of the 2020 cycle has been the runoff elections in Georgia where the people will be voting for two Senate seats on January 5, 2021. The stakes are high with a Democratic Administration about to arrive with a Democratic House majority. As stated in an Associated Press report: “Democrats need a sweep for a 50–50 Senate, positioning Vice President-elect Kamala Harris to tilt the chamber to Democrats with the tiebreaking vote.” The people of Georgia have seen one of the most expensive advertising campaign for Senate elections and those who have been following the elections through tweets would see a very specific narrative emerge about the elections suggesting that the flip may happen with the 100,000 tweets emphasizing the connection between the flip and the two Democratic contenders as shown in the map here. Those following the tweets would read a story that suggests that the Democrats would win on January 5, 2021.
The tweets, some of which are followed by millions, emphasize the “flip” which is the most frequently mentioned topic in the tweets. The flip is also strongly connected with “Ossoff” and “Warnock” the two Democratic candidates whereas there is a weak connection with “Loeffler” and almost a non-existent connection between the flip and “Perdue” the two Republican candidates. If at all, there is a greater likelihood of Loeffler winning as opposed to Perdue, who does not feature as much as the other candidates in the tweets. The connection between the flip and “McConnell” tells a story that emphasizes the importance of the flip to the Senate Majority leader who would see the Senate slip away based on the narrative that emerges from the tweets.
Biden and Trump feature in the narrative but neither appear to have an advantage in the narrative whereas the debates about the stimulus appears to offer some advantages to the Democratic candidates given the stronger connection between the stimulus and the Democrats as compared to the Republicans.
In sum, those following the tweets with topics such as “Georgia,” “Senate” and “Runoff” are seeing a story that suggests a Democratic win.